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"Three mountains" oppress methanol price 00:00, July 3, 2010, click: second

Usually, the rise of raw material price leads to the increase of production cost and the rise of product price. On June 1, the state raised the benchmark price of onshore natural gas by 0.23 yuan / m3. On June 3, various localities took advantage of the price increase of natural gas to raise the coal price by 20-30 yuan (ton price, the same below). As a result, the cost of methanol increased rigidly, and the production cost of some enterprises even increased by more than 400 yuan. However, the domestic methanol price did not rise, but fell sharply.
"After all, it's because supply exceeds demand." Shaanxi Weihe Coal Chemical Industry Group Co., Ltd. sales and marketing vice minister Li Shaochun said. In late May, the ex factory prices of methanol in northwest, north, northeast, central and southwest regions were generally maintained at 1900-2150 yuan, while those in East and South China were about 2200-2300 yuan. At present, the ex factory prices of methanol in southwest and central China were only 1900 yuan, and those of a few large coal enterprises in North and Northwest China even fell below 1750 yuan The overall price level was more than 100 yuan lower than that before the price rise of natural gas. This abnormal market performance is attributed to the following three factors:
First, production capacity continued to increase. Since this year, due to the continuous downturn in the chemical fertilizer market, the price of chemical fertilizer of many combined methanol enterprises has been lower than the cost of small and medium-sized enterprises using anthracite lump coal as raw material for a long time, forcing the combined methanol enterprises to reduce the load of chemical fertilizer plants, increase the load of methanol units and increase the output of methanol. In addition, several large-scale methanol plants put into operation in the third to fourth quarters of last year have realized continuous and high load production after eliminating leakage, making up for defects, running in and optimizing parameters. Some large-scale methanol to olefin projects have been completed and put into operation in the early stage, which has increased methanol production. Recently, the rise of natural gas price has stimulated the enthusiasm of natural gas production enterprises and increased the amount of industrial gas used. Many methanol enterprises that cut production and stopped production due to insufficient gas supply not only resumed production, but also realized the rare high load production in recent years. Finally, the domestic methanol production capacity increased significantly, and the oversupply was highlighted, which suppressed the downward price.
Second, the influx of low-cost imported methanol has impacted the domestic market. According to the latest statistics of the customs, from January to April, China imported more than 1.5 million tons of methanol, accounting for 30.8% of the total domestic methanol output of 5.09 million tons in the same period. Since most of these methanol come from Middle East countries, where there are abundant oil and gas resources, the price of natural gas and oil associated gas is generally only 0.3-0.6 yuan / cubic meter, the full cost of methanol is only 1100 yuan, and the price of arriving at Chinese ports is less than 1680 yuan, which is more than 300 yuan lower than the domestic methanol price. A large number of low-cost methanol poured into the Chinese market, which aggravated the contradiction between supply and demand of domestic methanol market, and hindered the domestic methanol price to rise with the increase of cost.
Third, weak demand growth depressed the downward trend of methanol price. Methanol has five major consumption areas: formaldehyde, acetic acid, dimethyl ether, methanol fuel and methyl tert butyl ether. At present, in addition to acetic acid, methyl tert butyl ether demand growth, formaldehyde, dimethyl ether, methanol fuel demand for methanol growth significantly slowed down.
In the field of formaldehyde, since this year, the state has significantly increased the regulation and control of the real estate industry, tightened the credit supply in the real estate field, and reduced the number of new projects. The main consumption market of formaldehyde is wood-based panel and interior decoration panel in the field of real estate. The slowdown in the real estate industry has reduced the demand for wood-based panels and interior decorative panels, and then reduced the demand for formaldehyde, and finally reduced the demand for methanol in this field. In addition, since the middle of May, the rainfall in all parts of the country has increased significantly, leading to the decline of the operating rate of plate enterprises, which makes the formaldehyde market appear the trend of volume reduction and price drop, which depresses the upward trend of methanol price.
In the field of dimethyl ether, on the one hand, affected by the "blockade" incident in Guangdong and other places at the beginning of the year, all parts of the country have increased the investigation and punishment of dimethyl ether mixed with liquefied petroleum gas to varying degrees, resulting in a significant reduction in the consumption of dimethyl ether and methanol On the other hand, domestic demand for dimethyl ether and dimethyl ether has been reduced due to the decrease in the domestic price of methyl ether and dimethyl ether, which has reduced the domestic demand for dimethyl ether.
In the field of methanol fuel, as the national standard M15 methanol gasoline for vehicles, which was originally planned to be issued in the second half of last year, has only been drafted, and it is difficult to issue and implement it in a short period of time. As a result, the promotion of low proportion of methanol gasoline is hindered, and the methanol consumption in the automobile fuel market is basically maintained at the level of last year, with no obvious growth.
Methanol consumption in formaldehyde, dimethyl ether and methanol fuel accounts for 69% of the total consumption of methanol. Due to the slow down of demand in these three major consumption areas, and the continuous increase of methanol production, and the continuous influx of low-cost imported methanol, the contradiction between domestic methanol supply and demand intensified. In this case, the methanol price is difficult to rise, even if it is stimulated by the rise of gas and coal prices.

(Chen Jijun)



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